Predictors of Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation After Cardiothoracic Surgery in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Interstitial Lung Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) undergoing cardiothoracic surgery face elevated risks of prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV). However, the comparative impact of these phenotypes and their independent predictors remain poorly characterized. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to synthesize evidence on PMV predictors specifically in COPD and ILD populations Methods: We systematically searched PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Web of Science from inception through January 2026. Observational studies and randomized controlled trials reporting PMV predictors (>24 hours ventilation) in adult patients with COPD or ILD undergoing cardiothoracic surgery were included. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed study quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Random-effects meta-analysis pooled odds ratios (OR) for identified predictors. Results: Of 3,847 citations screened, 47 studies met inclusion criteria (n=28,459 patients): 38 studies (n=19,234) on COPD, 6 studies (n=3,892) on ILD, and 3 studies (n=5,333) comparing both phenotypes. The pooled PMV rate was 32.1% (95% CI 28.4-36.0%) in COPD and 41.8% (95% CI 36.2-47.6%) in ILD patients.
Independent predictors of PMV in COPD: COPD severity (GOLD III-IV: OR 2.45, 95% CI 2.01-2.99, I²=42%), age >70 years (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.54-2.06, I²=31%), cardiopulmonary bypass time >120 min (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.95-2.74, I²=38%), FEV₁ <50% predicted (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.76-2.55, I²=47%), and preoperative oxygen use (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.32-1.89, I²=28%). Independent predictors of PMV in ILD: Cardiopulmonary bypass time >120 min (OR 2.67, 95% CI 2.14-3.33, I²=25%), age >70 years (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.68-2.67, I²=19%), preoperative oxygen dependency (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.98-3.03, I²=22%), and DLCO <40% predicted (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.74-2.99, I²=31%). ILD vs COPD: ILD patients had significantly higher PMV risk (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.42-1.99, I²=34%, p<0.001). Conclusions: COPD and ILD are both strong independent predictors of PMV after cardiothoracic surgery, with ILD conferring significantly higher risk. Phenotype-specific predictors include COPD severity and FEV₁ for COPD, and oxygen dependency and DLCO for ILD. These findings support tailored perioperative risk stratification and management strategies based on lung disease phenotype.